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No Change to the Threats to Businesses in India and Pakistan

India/Pakistan: While moves have been made between India and Pakistan to decrease tensions between India and Pakistan, the threat to private industry in India and Pakistan remains high. Pakistan stayed true to their word over the weekend and returned the captured Indian pilot.  Tensions across the border eased somewhat, but that is probably only temporary as India has enacted a five-year ban on the largest political and religious group in Kashmir, Jama’at-e Islami Kashmir (JI).  Indian authorities in Kashmir implemented widespread crackdowns and chose to increase the crackdowns beyond what was ordered until after the Indian elections in two months.

Analyst Notes

The crackdowns are likely intended to show the Indian government’s strength prior to the elections. Following the issues already plaguing the area, these crackdowns will possibly only serve to worsen the situation. If militants choose to carry out retaliatory strikes, it will likely push both nations back to the level they were at last week or beyond causing disruptions to private industry.